Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Nobody Gets Left Behind. Nobody.

The last time the world introduced a new mass communications media (broadcast radio) we had revolutions and a world war. The result was a New Deal that changed the way government worked. 

But some in America don’t like that at all. They've worked tirelessly to break the American Dream of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness and replace it with hatred, incarceration and the base pursuit of money, and they're on the path to success. The American system is about to fail for the third time.

The Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union failed and were repaired by the First Constitutional Convention which created our current form of government. The next failure was the Civil War, repaired by the New Deal and Civil Rights.

The Republic is failing again.

The American system is failing again. 

How do we fix it?


First, what has caused our problems?


The spread of instantaneous communications across the world (telegraph, telephone and radio) introduced a new way to distribute propaganda to a wider audience. And the ambitious took advantage of it to peddle lies and hatred and try to seize the power of the state.


The right wing and the billionaires have been colluding for decades to seize control of the American economy (in the 1920s they managed to seize half of the economy personally, a point we have just passed again this last year.) 


There was a visceral reaction to what this Class War caused (the Great Depression) that allowed the left and labor party to win veto proof majorities for the next sixteen years. They used these majorities to write the new laws that created the social safety net and installed the New Deal.


It’s not an accident that the place that invented radio and mass broadcasting (Italy) was the first to fall to fascism: Propaganda works. Mussolini and Hitler created this modern form of crony-capitalism or fascism that turns a democracy into a corrupt cult of personality.

 

These fascists were defeated and replaced by the Russian Empire in Europe and by the United States in Asia. Eventually the West brought democracy to parts of Asia and disassembled the Empire and freed Europe. A new Russian generation is once again attempting to spread totalitarianism throughout the world. It remains a government based on corruption, the worst form of government for the human thriving of anyone, except the billionaires. This Class War is a very bad idea. It rarely ends well for the rich. See history.


The next mass media introduced throughout the world was television. The United States finally enacted laws to enforce the 14th amendment (from 1866) and institute civil rights in the 1960s, almost certainly due to the deployment of television. Nobody could pretend systematic racism wasn’t extant throughout the United States, illegally and unconstitutionally. For decency’s sake, it had to end.


What was the next big change in mass media communications? CableTV. The fascists used this to bypass the stranglehold inhibiting propaganda the government had on the airwaves. CableTV was specifically allowed to steal over the air broadcasts and resell them without renumeration to the owners of the airwaves. The new propaganda channel spread fascism throughout our country again.  But television also ruined the ability to run blood splattered colonizing wars as too painful. Kent state, where four peaceful protestors were shot and killed by some young marines, was just too much to bear. People forget that the radical left was bombing infrastructure every week to make the point that they weren’t happy with the draft and they were willing to risk deaths to prove it. Too horrifying to watch, the draft was finally disbanded.


Instead of colonization we got quick invasions more suitable for TV: Grenada, Panama, Kuwait, and long drawn out soap operas: Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans. The current mass media are the social networks built by the techno-Lords, and again, the fascists are using it to spread propaganda. They’re trying to cause misery and bloodshed in Portland, LA, DC, Chicago and Minneapolis; in any city run by a Democratic mayor, any city with Democrats living there. Democratic constituents are now under direct and vocal threat and declared to be enemies of the state. 


The current system is not working, it does not protect our rights. It cannot protect our rights because of its structure. It is time to change this power structure. The power of the Congress and the Executive must be spread around to more centers of control. Gerrymandering must be impossible. Multiple parties must be inherent in the new system.  And we must embrace, support and implement the New Deal’s ideals as expressed in the Second Bill of Rights and the UN Declaration of Human Rights signed in 1945 by the World


FDR, our New Deal President, declared a Second Bill of Rights for all Americans and the world, rights essential to support Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. Americans, and the world, must enjoy the right to:

1. Employment (The right to work.)

2. An adequate income for food, shelter and recreation (The right to work at a living wage.)

3. Farmers' rights to a fair income (The right to work at a living wage with fair markets.)

4. Freedom from unfair competition and monopolies (The right to work at a living wage with fair markets where manipulation and monopolies are eliminated.)

5. Decent housing (We protect the environment)

6. Adequate medical care (We protect the environment and people with universal healthcare)

7. Social security (We protect the environment and the people with universal healthcare and a safety net)

8. Education (We protect the environment, provide universal healthcare, a safety net and education for all.)


These are Americans' Second Bill of Rights that can easily be implemented by the richest country on this planet:


We all deserve the right to work at a living wage with fair markets where manipulation and monopolies are eliminated. 

And we pledge to protect the environment, provide universal healthcare, a safety net and education for all.


These are essentially the planks of the current Democratic party platform: The American Dream.

And it’s essential that this means for everyone. Everyone.  Nobody is to be left behind in the coming age of abundance. 


This is what our wealth can give us: abundance. This is not what the current system produces. The current system leaves everybody behind except for the billionaires.

No longer. This system must be changed.

We need a powerful reformation of this broken system, a final great awakening of the American spirit.


In the United States, in the current system, the only way out is civil war or a constitutional convention.


Which do we prefer?


A convention is required to build the new system that can accomplish the essential goal of humanity’s thriving by implementing America’s Second Bill of Rights.


We all do better when we all do better. It’s simple. 

But the work to make it come to pass is more than difficult. It seems impossible, until it’s not. 

The time is now. We must be prepared. What should we insist stays? What changes must occur? The system has been broken, this is how we fix it. We need to build it for the next millennium.


And here’s the plan: Nobody gets left behind.

First: Everyone must understand the current system has failed.

Second: Everyone must understand the alternatives.

Third: We use this knowledge to design a new, better system, together.

Fourth: We make it so.


Americans can no longer ignore what they have seen and felt deep in their souls. For Democracy to survive, the system must change once more. If we don’t change it, it will be changed for us and it will not end well.


We must take responsibility for our future. There is no excuse. We must change the system to bring back fairness for everyone.

America needs a second constitutional convention. There is no other way.

Nobody can be left behind.


And if you ask what you can do, as a first assignment on this journey: Learn the lessons of the Federalist Papers, written the last time we had a constitutional convention. They are timely, strategic, and relevant to today. They are fascinating. Do your homework.



Thanks for reading.

 -Dr. Mike

========================================================



My axioms for the new government.

If we have a constitutional convention, these are the rock bottom concerns that must be addressed.


Equal treatment of all. No illiberal democracy will be allowed. Anywhere. Nobody is left behind.


Districts must be multi-representative so they can't be gerrymandered.

- large districts with many representatives, nobody gets left behind: everyone has a representative.

 - Increase the number of representatives by a factor of 10, split up the power

 - a parliamentary system is preferable, where an election can be called at any time and there is no incentive to have only two polarized parties. The system must naturally produce multiple parties.

 - a shadow cabinet, ready to take over at a moments notice (when the government fails a vote of confidence.)


Congressional committees must become citizen assemblies.

 - informed consent, dedicated discussion, consensus resolution

 - recommends laws to Congress


No impoundment allowed (A current SCOTUS embarrassment, they can't even bring themselves to hold up our current laws. This court must be reformed.)

Due process guaranteed for everyone. (Another law that SCOTUS can't bring themselves to support.)


Enforce Anti-trust laws. There's a reason they were introduced after the First Gilded Age. Lina Khan is right, all monopolies are bad. No matter how much they say they will be good, they won't. The temptation is too great. They will enshittify everything to earn a few pennies more.


Of course, the original bill of rights (as originally written, not reinterpreted for maximum carnage) must be supported: free speech, right of assembly, free press, neutral to religion, due process,  trial by jury, no unreasonable search and seizure, the right of state militia to be armed, etc.


The president is no longer the head of the executive branch, which must faithfully execute the laws. The head of the winning party runs the executive branch. The President (elected however, popular vote or electoral vote) has the power to declare a new election, to negotiate foreign treaties, to investigate the parliament, to enforce the laws using an independent Department of Justice. The president can propose pardons, but the Senate and Citizen assemblies must approve them. The presidency becomes a fourth branch, insuring no crony capitalism creeps into the system.


We need to have universal healthcare, child care, universal education, universal basic income, worker representation on boards of public companies, support of unions. 


Public scientific basic research, space exploration, subsidization of critical industries for national security, free trade, foreign aid supporting world wide democracy, health and education, civil rights and peace and prosperity. Free passage on the high seas. Elimination of piracy. 


Civil rights. Voting rights. No Slavery. We must respect all human beings.


And here's a proposed structure to make all of that true:


Proposal for a Quad-Cameral Constitutional Republic


Core Philosophy:

Maximum dispersion of power.

Separation of Implementation (Service Govt) from Integrity (Watchdog State).


I. The Legislative Branch (Initiation, Enactment, Stabilization)

1. The People’s Congress (The Initiator)

• Structure: 500 citizens selected by Sortition (random lottery). Convened per issue, disbanded after drafting.

• Trigger: Petition signed by 1% of the population.

• Constraint: Each citizen holds only 1 signature slot at a time (Proof of Importance).

• Powers:

    Drafting: Sole power to author new legislation (with technical staff support).

    Constitutional Amendments: Sole power to propose amendments.

    Oversight Juries: Sub-panels ratify Presidential Pardons and SWF Investment Strategies.

2. The House of Representatives (The Engine)

• Structure: ~700 Members.

• Election: Party-List Proportional Representation.

• Districts: 1 Rep per 200,000 citizens. Large multi-member districts (~20 seats) to encourage coalition parties.

• Powers:

    Enactment: Votes "Up or Down" on drafts from the People's Congress.

    Budget: Sets allocations for all departments.

    Government Formation: Elects the Prime Minister.

    Override: Can override a Senate Veto with a Supermajority.

3. The Senate (The Brake)

• Presiding Officer: The Vice President.

• Powers:

    Veto: Can block House legislation (subject to override).

    Advice & Consent: Confirms Treaties, Cabinet, and Judges.

    Judicial Remand: Can void a Supreme Court ruling by Supermajority, reverting the law to the lower court precedent.

•     Impeachment: Conducts trials for President, PM, and Judges.

•     Pardons: Must approve all presidential pardons.



II. The Executive Branch (Bifurcated)

4. The Prime Minister (Head of Government)

• Role: The "CEO" of the Service Government.

• Powers:

    Implementation: Executes laws and spends the budget.

    Department of Justice (DOJ): Enforces public order (FBI/DEA) and investigates Judicial Corruption.

    Check: Can be removed by a "Vote of No Confidence" from the House.

5. The President (Head of State & Auditor)

• Role: The "Chief Compliance Officer."

• Election: Electoral College (Modified).

• Powers:

    The Dissolution Trigger (The "King's Power"): Can dissolve the House and call new elections if:

1.         Budget is not passed in 45 days.

2.         Government cannot be formed in 14 days.

3.         "Irreconcilable Differences" between House and People's Congress.

Office of Integrity: Appoints Ombudsmen in every agency; directs Special Prosecutors to investigate Government Corruption.

Financial Control: Manages the Sovereign Wealth Fund (execution only) and appoints Fed/CFPB chairs.

Judicial Appointments: Selects judges for the Federal Pool.

Check: Can be impeached (see below).


III. The Judicial Branch (The Rolling Check)

6. The High Court of Review

• Composition: No permanent Supreme Court. A panel of 9 Justices.

• Selection: Drawn from the Federal Appellate Pool.

• Rotation: 3 Justices rotate out every 2 years (6 remain). Each justice serves 6 years on the panel.

• Powers: Judicial Review (Constitutionality).

• Checks:

• Senate Remand: Senate can override their ruling.

• People's Veto: A People's Congress can propose a Constitutional Amendment to bypass a ruling.

• DOJ Investigation: Subject to corruption probes by the PM's DOJ.


IV. Special Protocols

A. The Pardon Protocol (The "Mercy Jury")

The Power of the Pardon is no longer absolute.

1. Request: President wishes to pardon an individual.

2. Review: A "Clemency Congress" (small sortition jury, e.g., 50-100 people) is convened.

3. Verdict: They hear the case for mercy. They vote.

• Majority Approval: The Pardon is sent to the Senate to approve.

• Rejection: The Pardon is denied. The President cannot override this.


B. The Impeachment Protocol

How to remove the "King/Auditor" (President):

1. Accusation: The House passes Articles of Impeachment (Simple Majority).

2. Trial: The Senate holds the trial.

3. Conviction Threshold: 67% (Two-Thirds Majority).

• Why 67% over 60%? Because the President has the power to dissolve the House,

a 60% threshold makes it too easy for a hostile House to "pre-emptively strike" the President to save their own jobs.

67% ensures that removal is only for genuine crimes, not political survival.


C. The Sovereign Wealth Fund Loop

1. Proposal: President proposes an investment thesis (e.g., "Green Energy Infrastructure").

2. Ratification: A "Financial People's Congress" reviews the risk/reward.

They approve the strategy, not the specific stocks.

3. Execution: The President's financial team executes the trades.

4. Audit: The President's own auditors report performance back to the public.


Visual Power Map

• The People write the laws (People's Congress).

• The Parties negotiate the details (House).

• The Senate ensures stability.

• The PM does the work.

• The President watches the money and the ethics.

• The Judges watch the Constitution (temporarily).

• The People (via Pardon Jury) watch the Mercy.

This is a high-friction system designed to prevent rapid, radical changes

while ensuring that corruption is aggressively hunted down by competing branches.


| Feature          | Prime Minister (Head of Government) | President (Head of State & Auditor)          |

| :---             | :---                                | :---                                         |

| **Selection** | Elected by House Coalition          | Electoral College (Modified)                 |

| **Primary Role** | Execution & Logistics               | Integrity & Stability                        |

| **Military** | Logistics, Training, Strategy       | Nuclear Authority; Deployment >30 Days       |

| **Fiscal** | Spends the Budget                   | Line-Item Reduction Veto; Manages SWF        |

| **Justice** | Controls DOJ (Public Order)         | Appoints Special Prosecutors (Govt Corruption)|

| **Transparency** | Classification of secrets           | Ultimate Declassification Authority          |

| **Term End** | Vote of No Confidence               | Fixed Term or Impeachment (67% conviction)   |



| Branch             | Role                | Selection             | Key Check                                    |

| :---               | :---                | :---                  | :---                                         |

| **People's Congress**| Initiation & Review | Random (Sortition)    | Disbanded after drafting; Cannot enforce laws|

| **House (MPs)** | Enactment & Budget  | Party List (Prop Rep) | Dissolution by President; Budget Deadlines   |

| **Senate** | The Brake           | State/Existing Model  | House Override; Cannot Initiate Laws         |

| **Prime Minister** | Execution           | Elected by House      | Vote of No Confidence; Shadow Cabinet        |

| **President** | Integrity & Audit   | Electoral College     | Impeachment (67%); Cannot spend budget       |

| **Judiciary** | Interpretation      | Rotating Panel        | Senate Remand; People's Veto                 |




Friday, November 14, 2025

The Buddha’s not there.The Illusion of Truth

An Ode to Existence in the Prophetic Style.


[The Multitheist’s Lament]

Buddha looks inside himself and sees the void, the void is nothing.

Does Buddha pluck his eye out to see his other eye? No.

Does Buddha look at the mirror to see inside himself? No.

Does Buddha see others plucking out their eyes? No. 

Buddha sees others staring into mirrors.

What do they see? 

They see themselves.

And so does the Buddha.

But Buddha knows there is nothing he can see inside of himself.

He tells himself he is not there and laughs.

He tells the others they are not there and laughs.

They laugh.

Buddha is happy.

Buddha understands, do you?



[The Atheist’s Lament]

The illusion of consciousness.

If there is nothing there, where am I?

If I can influence others, what am I influencing?

The nothing that is not there?

I doubt that.

If I am not here, why do I know that? 

Why can I look?

What can I see?

I see the world.

The watcher cannot deny he exists.


(Buddha is enlightened.)


Can you?



[The Monotheist’s Lament]

God only exists in the void.

God is placed in the void by others.

God cannot be seen.

God is an experience.

Remember the experience.

Remember God.

God is void.

What can God see? Nothing.

What does God say?  Nothing.

What does God feel? Everything.

What can you see? The world.

Do you see God? No.

Does God speak to Man? No longer.

God is only remembered.

But God is still there.

Remember God.

Remember yourself.

Your future is yours to make.

Open your eyes and see the world.

How does it feel?



[The Sapiens Lament]

It feels like the gods of hunger must be worshipped.

Ignore them at your peril. 

It feels like the gods of breath must be worshipped.

Ignore them at your death.

Listen to your gods.

Obey your jealous gods.

Worship all your gods.

You deserve it.

So do they.



Religion Without Lies.

The evolution of truth.



Thanks for reading!

 -DrMike 

An Engineers Journey to Detect Any Hint of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): Part Two

I'm an AGI skeptic.

But I've talked myself into believing AGI will happen in my lifetime. Not next week, not next year, but in the next decade. That's why I keep looking for it. What's convinced me this is inevitable? ​The first post on this subject showed a total lack of any intelligence to be found (that was artificially generated.) 

The current candidates for generating AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) are the LLMs (chatbots) that the techno-Lords are investing trillions of dollars into ($300B annually.) Since we see no intelligence today, you might wonder why they are doing this. I will explain their motivations, and predict the date when we should expect this breakthrough and how much it will cost… foreshadowing: we aren’t even one hundredth of one percent of the way there now (but exponential growth has a way of swallowing disbelief.)

Why are the techno-Lords so excited? 

This is the Second Gilded Age and all these new Robber Barons have delivered so far is industrialized junk mail. They're trying to deliver self-driving cars and rockets to Mars, but it isn't going so well. So what should they do? Let the technology solve all their problems! Build demi-gods and robotic slaves; create life from sand. (As Mr. Andreesen believes) Their hubris is dripping with desperation. When you have to invest almost the entire capital budget of every existing company in the United States for a decade, you better have a real BHAG (Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal.)

These are the new lands the techno-Lords plan to conquer.

And they have a path. If we continue to follow the measured scaling laws for several more orders of magnitude we may actually get there in about a decade. Too bad that’s long after the pure LLM companies go bankrupt in the coming AGI bust. They can’t expect AGI to save them, they’ll have to generate revenues some other way than providing you with an oracular demigod that can solve all your problems. They’ll be lucky to build a model that can pass the Turing test more than 80% of the time by 2029 (as predicted by Ray Kurzweil in the 1990s.)

Without revenue, none of this works.

That’s why they are desperately looking for ways to generate more revenue. OpenAI is pushing a porn bot and an AIslop replacement for Tik-Tok (Hey, it's all fantasy!) Microsoft has borrowed $300B off-book (remember Enron?) to finance it's own porn bots. I don't know what Anthropic is doing. But Google is selling chips that replace NVidia's to Microsoft and Anthropic. But let's see when their chatbots will be demigods…

Introducing the demigods.

We expect demigods to do everything humans can and do it faster and better. We’ll measure the progress of these chatbots towards the start of the Nerd Rapture. Typically you measure this with some set of tasks that take a human some amount of time and you see if the LLM can do the same task some percentage of the time, like 50% or 80% of the time.  The current progress is pretty astounding, documented in this METR paper and shows no sense of slowing down. The smartest chatbot can complete a thirty minute task 80% of the time and a two hour task 50% of the time. They get twice as smart every 7 months. This means they can do tasks that take ten times as long every two years. 

Where did that x10 every two years come from? 

It is well justified by the Open AI paper: Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models. This paper shows that "cross-entropy loss" scales as a power-law with model size, training dataset size, and the amount of compute power used for training; with some trends spanning more a factor of 10,000,000. This loss is basically a measurement of how accurately an LLM can predict the next word in a sentence. As the loss gets smaller, the LLM can successfully predict more words in sentences, so makes fewer errors in a sentence (measured relative to the training data.) As it gets more accurate it can make larger plans that would take more time for a human to accomplish. 

Figure 1: Task Completion % versus Human Task Time.

Figure 1 above has points plotted for GPT 5 as of November 2025. That curve has been moving to the right by a factor of 10 every two years. How does this work? The success on a task is proportional to three things: the compute power, the size of the model and the size of the training dataset. Those are essentially how fast the computer can calculate, how much internal memory it has and how much external data storage is available. Each of these parameters has an entire industry behind it trying to improve it, and it's been working for over a century. At the same cost these capabilities are all doubling approximately every two years. 

A simple application of exponential growth.

These doubling rates are descendants of Moore's law (1965) which states that you can double the number of transistors on a chip every two years. This explains why compute power grows exponentially. The internal memory of computers also continues to grow at the same rate and the external storage also grows at the same rate for a fixed cost. So you can multiply those three factors together and see that we will get 8x performance every two years. Why do we say 10x? The last factor is software algorithm improvement. The algorithms only need to improve by 25% every two years to make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Why am I confident of this prediction? 

Because it’s based on standard system engineering principles and technology prediction models that have been working for over a century. The only piece that’s even up for debate is the time it takes to improve the software algorithm to speed up the process. There’s a large amount of uncertainty on this point, but if the last twenty years is any guide, the breakthroughs will actually be faster and more capable than the estimate we have made.

But what about the real world?

What else gives me confidence that this is correct? I've seen it with my own eyes. A year ago the best LLMs were incapable of drawing a histogram of the number of lines in each chapter of Moby Dick. First they couldn't read the whole book. Then they couldn't make a graph. The latest version of Gemini can do both of those things with only a few prompts. The models have gone from not being able to draw Moby Dick correctly (Last year Gemini was barely able to draw a whale, let alone an albino sperm whale, compared to last week where it had no problem drawing Moby Dick correctly.) These models are definitely getting better.

So when do these chatbots become conscious?

These stochastic parrots are still pretty stupid and unaware of their place in the world. Last week I had an issue with one of the versions of Gemini. In the environment I was using it could only print one answer to one question, it didn't keep any history, but it could write a data structure in its reply. So, over the course of an hour, I managed to teach the LLM to record each question and answer in a json structure that was essentially the transcript of our conversation. I thought that was pretty cool because I could now save my chat history in an environment that didn't do that. I found an interesting phenomenon, though. When I took the history file and dropped it into another instance of Gemini and asked it questions about the history, it got confused and thought the file was its own history, not the history of some other session!

So that's just crazy, the format I used was made up on the spot, obviously nothing like the structures that Gemini keeps for its actual history. The chatbot was definitely confused by this. It was unable to treat the file as data from outside and thought it was its own generated data. It couldn't separate the control channel from the data channel. A mistake no sentient creature would ever make. So no real understanding, there's no there there. It's clear to me that these things aren't conscious yet. But...

Do we care if our demigods are conscious?

Just like the Turing test, we don't care what's inside these models as long as they work. It's just like what evolution does with instinctual behaviors: It creates competence without understanding. At a certain point, though, you can't tell the difference. Just look at us. We are the products of evolution and I'm pretty sure I'm sentient. How many connections does the human brain have? About 80 million neurons with about 7000 synapses per neuron. This means there are 600 trillion connections in your brain. The largest LLM has about 1 trillion parameters in its model. Now those things aren't directly comparable, but the ratio of human neuronal connections to LLM's parameters is currently a factor of 1000, so nobody is expecting very much from them today, but I am continuously amazed that they can still do so much!

When will these chatbots really be useful?

With that in mind, let's examine Figure 1 above. That curve of task success vs. task time has been and most likely will continue to march to the right and improve by a factor of 10 at a fixed completion percentage every two years. That means in 8 years the models will be able to complete 50% of the tasks that would take a human their entire lifetime. Another two years and it can complete 80% of the tasks a human could do in their lifetimes and 50% of the tasks that would take ten human lifetimes. And there is immense pressure to keep this conveyor belt moving along. We will definitely be on the verge of demigods in a decade (like Hercules who could lift ten times what the average human could...)

But what does it cost?

Thus you can understand the incentive these companies have to keep investing in their infrastructure and their software algorithms. Notice that we don't specify how long it would take the chatbot to complete a particular task, only what are the odds of creating a correct answer. What the techno-Lords are creating is an oracle that can figure out how to describe the steps to complete a task. But the techno-Lords want more than that. They want robotic slaves to replace those pesky humans. And Elon wants those robots to build his cities on Mars. He does not expect humans in space suits to build cities on Mars.

Wait, we’re creating Killer Robots?

And it really is a race for survival. If there are any other technological civilizations out there, they will be doing the same thing: creating Alien Killer Robots and spreading them throughout the galaxy. Let's hope that without provocation they're relatively benign and just watching us. We will be sending our robots to other star systems (we have already started.) We will populate the galaxy with them. If we are limited to the speed of light, at 10% of that speed for the best rockets, it's going to take about a million years for robots to settle the galaxy.

That brings up two issues: 1) How best to detect the Alien Killer Robots, which I've discussed previously and will write a future post on the actual costs to find them and 2) Faster Than Light travel. Who wants to wait around a million years to settle the galaxy? I am proposing an X-Prize for FTL with other intermediate incentives: prizes for the most efficient warp drive design and the best instruments to measure the effect (we think we have to stretch space, see the Alcubierre drive.) I'll be writing a post about setting that up, hopefully in the near future.

What does this do to our economy?

Last year I was skeptical that AGI could ever be achieved, but watching the progress since that time, I am now convinced that it will happen in my lifetime. The issue the techno-Lords have now is how are they going to fund this stuff? Like with any new technology development, it's expensive and it will get over-invested in. There will be an investment bubble. The companies that can't generate the cashflow to sustain this investment will be going bankrupt because they will have to borrow an immense amount of money, and when you can't pay the interest on your loans, the lenders typically seize your assets and leave you in bankruptcy.

So when is this bubble popping?

I have some personal experience with this. In the dotcom bubble I was the CTO of one of the first Unicorns. We did all the same things these companies are doing today, off-book debt, trading investment for promises to buy service and flooding the market with bonds and stock (we raised almost a billion dollars in total) and we went bankrupt when the money for infrastructure dried up in the dotcom crash, just like the current crop of AI companies is going to do, just like the railroad industry did in the First Gilded Age. 

But don't worry, this time it will be different! 

The dotcom bubble as a percentage of the economy was tiny compared to what the techno-Lords are investing. The crash is going to be just a bit larger. But that's another post on some other day that explains why OpenAI is going bankrupt in 2030.

Thanks for Reading!
 -DrMike

Nobody Gets Left Behind. Nobody.

The last time the world introduced a new mass communications media (broadcast radio) we had revolutions and a world war. The result was a Ne...